The Road Ahead 2024

All voluntary organisations – no matter your cause or size – rely on people to make a difference. This chapter explores key social and cultural issues to help you navigate their impact on staff, volunteers and communities.

It provides insight into ongoing personal financial pressures, proposed changes to the welfare system, developments in volunteering and the impact of migration and asylum applications.

While the crisis began in late 2021, it remains a central issue. The Office for National Statistics has found that 90% of adults state the cost of living is the most important issue facing the UK today.

In Autumn 2023, more than half of adults (54%) reported that their cost of living had increased compared with a month ago. Food, fuel, gas and electricity bills were reported as key drivers.

As a result, 65% said they were spending less on non-essentials, 47% were using less fuel at home, and 44% (more than 4 in 10) were spending less on food shopping and essentials.

The crisis continues to intensify inequalities within our communities, with many lacking access to basic services and support. A range of wellbeing and prosperity trends are worsening:

• People’s satisfaction with their health has been declining since 2016. From January 2020 to December 2021, 44.7% of adults in the UK reported being mostly satisfied or completely satisfied with their general health.
• Around 30% of children live in poverty, with higher rates for children from the global majority.
• Without significant intervention an estimated 1 in 5 families will face unaffordable housing costs by 2030.
• The Trussell Trust saw a 16% increase in emergency food parcels provided to people by food banks in the charity’s UK-wide network between April and September 2023 compared to the same period in 2022.
• Improvements in life expectancy rates (often used as a proxy measure of progress on health and wellbeing) have stalled and sadly worsened in some areas.

Charities and volunteers working alongside and supporting communities increasingly need to grapple with basic needs that are going unmet.

While this is being felt by social welfare charities today, the cost of living, growing poverty, deprivation and ill health will have a knock on many voluntary organisations.

Stay ahead

• Follow NCVO’s #CostOfGiving campaign to keep up to date with our work to address the multiple crises facing charities and volunteering.
• Help shape our Manifesto for the sector, and our longer-term influence to make the case for better support for communities and charities supporting them.

The year ahead will see the implementation of the government’s plan to reduce the number of people not in employment not working. From this year, stricter benefit sanctions will be enforced, the fit note system will be reformed and changes will be made to key benefits such as the Work Capability Assessment.

The year ahead will also see the launch of new WorkWell services in 15 pilot areas. These new services aim to assess:

• health-related barriers to work
• plans to address these
• and options for local support.

Services will be led by integrated care systems, including in partnership with voluntary organisations.

Our UK Civil Society Almanac shows a 37% increase in the proportion of disabled people in the voluntary sector workforce since 2016. Some will be claiming receipt of benefits and employment support and will be affected by the changes.

Stay ahead

• Learn more about charities' responses to the government plans from Disability Rights UK and the Disability Benefits Consortium.
• Read the Government’s advice on recruiting and retaining disabled people in your workforce.

As many individuals and communities struggle, many turn to charities and volunteers for support. This results in rising levels of demand.

A September 2023 survey of more than 600 charities by CAF Charity Resilience Index found around six in ten (59%) say that demand has increased compared to a year ago, with nearly a third (31%) saying it has increased substantially.

Just over half of charities (53%) surveyed stated they were at full capacity for their services. Two-fifths (41%) of charities surveyed who say they said they could not help anyone else, and one in eight (12%) said they had who say they had been forced to turn people away.

Our sector has long played an essential role in delivering public services, Though, in current times charities need to step in more where services have been reduced and withdrawn.

At the same time, they are finding that there are no alternative support systems to refer people in need. This increased demand and complexity are likely to continue for some time, with the Institute for Government predicting that without serious action from the government, our public services face a perpetual state of crisis.

Stay ahead

• Read and follow our guidance on how voluntary organisations can adapt to rising or changing demand due to the cost of living crisis.

A 2023 review of citizen engagement with political decision-making concluded that public trust and satisfaction with the political system are at dangerously low levels.

However, despite – or perhaps because of this – voluntary organisations and communities are finding new ways to organise, influence decisions and claim power. While the general election will dominate the headlines in 2024, many voluntary organisations will be seeking to create wider change in access to decision-making.

Voluntary organisations can stand alongside a wide range of groups calling for change in power across the country:

• We’re Right Here is led by community leaders and backed by a growing range of voluntary organisations calling for people to have the power to shape their places. They are leading calls for the Community Power Act.
• Locality has set plans for a 'community power revolution'.
• Local Trust have set detailed plans for community and neighbourhood governance reform.
• Power to Change is seeking to make sure community business strengthens local communities.

These calls for change run across the political spectrum – with both Labour and Conservative groups highlighting the importance of better relationships and control over decision-making.

Stay ahead

• To learn about how to better engage your community, Community Organisers offers the Framework Focus course on community organising.
• Back calls for a Community Power Act on the Right Here website.
• Gain the skills to campaign for change in power, with training by the Sheila McKechnie Foundation.

How people want to give their time have been changing over recent years and is likely changing due to the cost of living.

The most recent data in our UK Civil Society Almanac showed that levels of formal volunteering have declined since 2020/21. They remain well below pre-pandemic levels, although the rate of decline has slowed.

Shifts in interest and motivation are likely to continue to pose difficulties for many charities. Many smaller charities are struggling to find volunteers and to provide support for the volunteers they already engage.

Our Time Well Spent research has shown that increasingly, people are looking for flexible, short-term, one-off and accessible opportunities. Organisations that engage volunteers must continue to take proactive and strategic steps to adapt. Collectively, the voluntary sector needs to continue to make progress to make sure that volunteering is accessible and meets people’s needs.

Some challenges depend on the type of charity. Organisations delivering public services or services which currently fit within a rigid model face challenges in managing these adaptations.

This includes making sure that volunteers have a meaningful and rewarding experience when many currently report lower levels of satisfaction than those carrying out other activities.

However, some groups in society can face particular barriers and poor experiences in volunteering. Our Time Well Spent research shows that satisfaction among volunteers has fallen in recent years.

Detailed research into volunteering among the global majority found they can feel even less satisfied, more excluded and less likely to continue giving their time compared to volunteers overall. Our sector must address these inequalities.

As the Cost of Living crisis continues, potential volunteers' concerns about costs are likely to continue. This poses a particular barrier for young people with 18% of young people stating a concern about costs as a reason for them not getting involved. Many volunteers may need to prioritise paid work rather than volunteer.

Stay ahead

• Make the most of campaigns and initiatives like the 40th Anniversary of Volunteers’ Week and the Big Help Out, to recruit, retain and support more volunteers.
• Get involved with the Vision for Volunteering, to support the movement for change in making volunteering more accessible, inclusive and impactful.
• Explore NCVO’s practical guidance on involving volunteers and implications for volunteering practice to improve the experience of global majority volunteers.
• Join NCVO in supporting the Community Transport Association’s campaign for the government to increase the Approved Mileage Allowance Payment to reimburse volunteers who drive as part of their activities.

Provisional national statistics show that net international migration - the difference calculated between people moving to the UK (immigration) and people leaving the UK (emigration) – has been at the highest level ever seen over the past two years.

Analysts describe recent growth as being driven by:

• increases in non-EU migration for work (especially health and care workers)
• students coming to study
• schemes welcoming British Nationals (Overseas) from Hong Kong
• an influx of Ukrainians as a result of the war
• and asylum seekers.

While data is patchy and subject to change, the Office for National Statistics suggests that there is a slowing of immigration coupled with increasing emigration.

Similarly, analysts at the University of Oxford expect that net migration will fall over the next few years—assuming there is no new major shock that affects immigration to the UK (as the Ukraine war did in 2022, for example).

The government has announced plans for a significant tightening of migration with the earning threshold for overseas workers gradually rising by nearly 50% from its current position to £38,700, with an interim threshold of £29,000. There are plans to increase the annual Immigration Health Surcharge from £624 to £1,035. There will also be a further review of graduate visa’s.

There will be a restriction on migration for those working within health and social care. Our 2023 UK Civil Society Almanac shows nearly 38,000 voluntary organisations with a combined income of £19bn work in social services and health care.

Many will be deeply affected by the shift. Campaigners such as the Care and Support Alliance and not-for-profit social care providers in the National Care Forum have all raised significant concerns.

While health and social care providers will be particularly impacted, other organisations will be affected. It’s unclear what will happen to existing skilled worker visa holders who are due to renew their visa, but whose salary no longer meets the threshold. Changes to graduate visas could significantly impact education charities and those in higher education.

Voluntary organisations should consider how the changes may impact their staff from overseas; including potential risks to them being unable to have partners or dependents join them in the UK. Beyond the individual, you should consider the wider impact on recruitment and retention of staff and wider workforce planning.

Stay ahead

• Learn more about the changes to legal migration rules for family and work visas in 2024 in this House of Commons library briefing.
• Migrant workers in the sector may be able to get support from trade unions, such as UNISON, or get advice from charities such as JCWI.
• Consider our guidance on working with volunteers from overseas and get information about potential visa implications.

There were 75,340 asylum applications (relating to 93,296 people) in the UK in the year ending September 2023. This is more than twice the number of applications in 2019 and one of the highest figures in the past two decades.

In the same period, 38,761 people were granted refugee status or another protection - the highest number granted in a year since 2002.

Tens of thousands more will be awaiting a decision on their asylum claim whilst receiving little financial support and are not allowed to work.

Many voluntary organisations provide vital support to asylum seekers and refugees. Demand will likely remain high given that increasing numbers of people are awaiting an initial decision on their claim. Long asylum backlogs in decision- making are likely to continue into 2024.

Over the same period, an additional nearly 110,000 people were offered a safe and legal (humanitarian) route to come to or remain in the UK. Over half were on Ukraine schemes. This was 61% less than the year ending September 2022, due to fewer Ukrainian arrivals.

The visas for the first Ukrainians to arrive under the scheme will expire in Spring 2025, and it is unclear whether the government intends to extend existing three-year visas. Just under 74,000 sponsors have applied to host Ukrainians under the scheme.

‘Thank you’ payments of sponsors hosting Ukrainian refugees are due to finish one year before visas expire. Unless sponsors are willing to host Ukrainians without payment, other housing solutions will be needed. Surveys of Ukrainians in the UK show that more than half intend to live in the UK even when they feel it is safe to return to Ukraine.

Voluntary organisations need to consider the longer-term nature of the conflict in Ukraine and the evolving needs of those here.

It’s likely that 2024 will see decisions about what level of government support will be available into 2025 which could have significant impacts on both Ukrainians resident in the UK and the community groups supporting them.

Stay ahead

• Read more about the Homes for Ukraine scheme on GOV.UK.
• Learn more about the challenges and future of the scheme in the National Audit Office Investigation.