The Road Ahead 2024

In 2023 the combined threats of declining income, increased costs and rising service demand created what we called a Cost of Giving Crisis. Coming so soon after the pandemic, the growing Cost of Giving Crisis means many in the voluntary sector have not had time to look beyond keeping their doors open.

It is important to focus on the issues of today, but we also need to look ahead. This is so we can make sure as charities we can be there for the people and communities who need us and to make sure we are resilient and able to meet the challenges of the future.

It will come as no surprise that we’re expecting another year of considerable change and challenge for both our sector and our society. But, as with any new year, it also brings hope for the future.

We believe the voluntary sector will have a big role to play in this transformational year. Particularly when it comes to raising our collective voice about the issues that matter and the realities facing our communities in the lead-up to a general election.

One example of this can be seen in the work we are doing with our partners at ACEVO to develop a voluntary sector manifesto to support the next UK government to work well with charities and volunteers.

We expect the resilience and innovation of the voluntary sector to once again shine through in 2024. But we’re predicting a need for:

• a renewed partnership with national and local government to tackle the issues facing our society
• greater collaboration between organisations in the voluntary sector to help navigate the challenges ahead and create the most impact for the communities we support
• agility and adaptability to meet the technological and environmental shifts of the day.

We hope that the analysis in this report – combined with NCVO’s continued offer of practical support and guidance – will help you and your organisation feel empowered to make decisions enabling your organisation to make 2024 the best year possible.

A general election will be called in the UK in 2024 – with the Autumn predicted to be the most likely time that voters will go to the polls. Organisations will need to think strategically about the impact – and opportunity – of political change for their organisation.

For example, an upcoming election will likely cause delays in decision-making around contract tendering processes and financial decision-making. This will need to be part of your planning for the year.

Whoever wins on election day, we need to work with all parties to make sure the future government will be receptive to the voices of charities and communities in tackling the big issues facing our country, and that charities have a seat at the decision-making table.

There are also important local and regional elections taking place this year – the outcomes of which hold the potential to have a greater immediate impact on charities and their work.

Across all elections in 2024, voluntary organisations have a powerful role in showcasing the reality of communities across the country and providing a platform for their voices.

One way charities can do this is through campaigning – but all voluntary organisations must follow electoral and charity law – even those who may not consider themselves to be ‘campaigning organisations’.

It's also important that organisations consider the potential risks of engaging in campaigning or advocacy – particularly where some key issues may draw in opposing views. A general election year will lead to an increase in the attention paid to some issues as some politicians and media seek to engage in manufactured ‘culture wars’.

This is almost guaranteed to play out on social media – so you must have organisation-wide agreement on what and how you go about engaging on issues through these channels.

As we enter the third year of the UK’s ongoing cost of living crisis, the immediate priority of voluntary sector organisations is to make sure service delivery continues for the communities we support in the face of economic hardship.

There will undoubtedly be an even greater focus on the state of the UK’s economy in 2024 and what it means for our society. We predict that the current difficult economic climate for charities will continue throughout 2024.

Inflation looks set to remain high for most of 2024, adding further to the rising operating costs many organisations are facing, with interest rates unlikely to fall significantly. This combination will see wage increases continue across the economy. For charities, it will be difficult to match private or public sector pay, impacting on staff retention and recruitment – particularly in ‘hard to fill’ vacancies.

We will continue to see increasing numbers of people seeking to access charity services when they have already been under intense and growing pressure for many years.

The economic outlook will also make public fundraising more challenging – a big issue when the latest figures show public giving makes up almost half of the voluntary sector’s income.

With public services receiving minimal investment and local government facing drastic financial shortfalls under the current government, this vital funding source for the sector will also come under real pressure.

Charities delivering public sector contracts will increasingly have to choose between using charitable funds to make up any shortfall or take the hard decision to withdraw from delivering services. This poses real risks for people who rely on our vital public services - something we must continue to speak out loudly about as a sector.

The challenging nature of the current socio-economic climate will leave many people looking for positive alternatives and raise the possibility of exploring new ways to create real change. There is an obvious role here for charities and voluntary organisations in building and advocating for a brighter future.

People increasingly want opportunities to bring decision-making – particularly related to their communities – closer to home. Voluntary organisations support this aim, including through our calls for greater funding of both local government and the local social infrastructure that can help make our communities better places to live.

But to support more people to get involved in their communities, charities will need to adapt. One way they can do this is by improving the flexibility of volunteering opportunities. How people give their time has changed and increasingly people are looking for flexible, short-term and accessible opportunities.

Organisations must take proactive and strategic steps to ensure volunteering is accessible and meeting people’s needs. The 40th anniversary of Volunteers’ Week and the return of the Big Help Out in 2024 offer fantastic opportunities for organisations to do this and engage their communities.

Alongside changes in how people want to participate in civic life, charities will need to adapt to the big shifts in technology which will continue to reshape how we live, work, and interact. In particular, 2024 will see the further development and rollout of artificial intelligence (AI).

Many voluntary organisations will see AI integrated into their everyday work. Developing plans and strategies to ensure your organisation gets the maximum positive potential from these and other technologies, and the changes they are creating will be crucial.

As existential as the rise of AI is the continuing climate crisis. Organisations will continue to adapt their operations – such as through energy efficiency measures – and increasingly consider the impact of climate change on both the people who access their services and the way their services operate.

The voluntary sector will have a vital role in advocating for a greener, more equitable future for everyone. In particular, charities are uniquely placed to ensure there is a diversity of voices – from all communities – within the climate and technology debates which are likely to form part of the UK’s 2024 election campaign.

While there are many challenges in the year ahead, 2024 has the potential to be a transformative year.

Regardless of who is in power or what direction the economy takes, the voluntary sector can, and will, play a vital role in raising the voices of people and communities and supporting those taking action to create a brighter future today.

We hope that the analysis in this report will help you and your organisation to feel empowered to make decisions which will enable you to make 2024 the best year possible.

If you would like to speak to us about this report, please email policy@ncvo.org.uk.