The Road Ahead 2024

In preparation for the upcoming general election in the UK, get advice on navigating the political landscape.

You can use this chapter to consider key changes ahead in the world of politics and how they may impact your voluntary organisation.

After the last general election in December 2019, the Conservative government passed the Dissolution and Calling of Parliament Act 2022. This brought back the power of the monarch to dissolve Parliament at the request of the Prime Minister in power at that time.

The Act specified that parliament would be dissolved automatically five years after it first met, in this case, 17 December 2024. This would lead to a general election 25 working days later which means the latest possible date is 28 January 2025.

Political pundits continue to speculate about when Rishi Sunak will call the general election. A May election seems to be ruled out with Autumn 2024 seen as the most likely date. Others predict it won’t be till January 2025.

If you want to campaign during an election, your organisation will need a flexible approach. Keep an eye on and speculation – most analysts believe that the ruling party will call an election when fits best for their future chances.

Stay ahead

• Learn more about when and how the prime minister may decide when to call an election in this Institute for Government explainer.
• We’re developing a manifesto with the Association of Chief Executives of Voluntary Organisations (ACEVO) on behalf of the voluntary sector. This is an opportunity for members and the wider sector to influence political parties at a time when they are developing their general election manifestos.

Voluntary organisations need to consider how an election could impact them whether they increase campaigning activity or not.

Organisations need to make sure they know the rules for campaigning, including charity and electoral law.

The Electoral Commission’s Code of Practice

The Electoral Commission is the independent body which oversees elections and regulates political finance in the UK. In 2023, The Electoral Commission published a Code of Practice to provide more support for charities and other non-party campaigners in making sure they follow electoral law.

This Code differs from other types of guidance the Commission publishes because Parliament has approved it. If organisations breach the laws explained in this Code, it may be an offence resulting in a fine or prosecution.

Voluntary organisations should read the Code and the updated guidance. It includes information on when you must include an imprint (a specific form of words that explains who campaign material has been issued on behalf of on digital content).

For most charities, this will only mean checking if paid-for adverts require an imprint, but registered non-party campaigners must consider a much wider range of material.

Non-party campaigning

As we are now a maximum of a year away from the election, we know that non-party campaigning rules are now in place. Voluntary organisations should consider whether their activity will likely meet the tests for ‘controlled expenditure’ and how much they will spend on any ‘regulated activity’.

Most voluntary organisations will not carry out enough of this regulated activity to meet spending limits. You should consider whether rules on joint campaigning apply (if you’re working together with others on a campaign).

If you decide your cause is best served by carrying out this activity, there's no reason for you not to register as a non-party campaigner.

Campaigning, advocacy and political activity are all legitimate and valuable activities for charities to do. The Charity Commission has spoken positively about the right to campaign in recent years.

They have made clear that political campaigning is within the law and can be an activity that supports charities in achieving their purpose. Follow the rules and you can make a real difference for your cause.

Stay ahead

• Get the details of electoral rules by reading the Electoral Commission Non-party Campaigner Code of Practice and the full Electoral Commission guidance for non-party campaigners.
• Charities should always follow the Charity Commission's Campaigning and political activity guidance.

The pre-election period (sometimes called purdah), can place specific restrictions on public bodies (whether you choose to campaign or not).

Usually lasting between four to six weeks running up to the election, civil servants or politicians may need to delay:

• releasing tender processes
• making decisions
• signing of contracts or grant agreements.

Learn more about the pre-election period and what it means for different elections, in this House of Commons library briefing.

The election will also be the first general election held under the Elections Act 2022.

This requires voters to show photo ID when attending a polling station. Campaigners – and the Electoral Commission – are warning that this is causing barriers to voting, especially for:

• disabled people
• unemployed people
• people from some ethnic minority (also known as global majority) communities
• and younger age groups.

The Act also changed postal and proxy voting, the voting rights of European Union (EU) citizens and British electors living overseas and created new duties for disability inclusion.

Stay ahead

• Learn more about the Elections Act 2022, by reading an evaluation of its implementation.

Several voluntary organisations have found themselves at the centre of challenging debates, and the general election will increase the attention in some areas. Your organisation should plan how to manage this.

The last year has shown that social media can be particularly tough for voluntary organisations to navigate. Expect increased scrutiny of what voluntary organisations are saying as the election gets closer.

Speaking out publicly can be a powerful way of making your point. A key lesson from 2023 is that if you’re going to comment publicly on a widely debated topic, you should make sure:

• there is buy-in from your organisation's leadership and board
• prepare for how you will respond to pushback.
• your organisation has a social media policy followed by your team that is regularly updated and approved by your board.

It could damage your reputation if you have to withdraw or apologise for your comments later.

Charities always need to consider the risks of this activity. With this year being a major opportunity for charities to influence the policy agenda, the risks of failing to engage in political debate could be even higher.

Stay ahead

• Charities should always follow the Charity Commission's Campaigning and political activity guidance.
• Read the Charity Commission’s new social media guidance.
• Review and consider the Charity Comms Social media policy template.
• Read the Charity Commission’s overview of what you need to think about on campaigning ahead of the election.
• Use the Electoral Commission guidance to answer more detailed questions.

The Labour Party has been consistently ahead of opinion polls since October 2022. Support for Labour became considerably higher towards the end of Liz Truss’s time in power, and have not significantly gone down since.

So it makes sense that charities, like other campaigning and lobbying organisations, may want to prioritise their connections with Labour.

However, you can never fully predict who will win an election, with both 2015 and 2017 producing unexpected results. For Labour to win at the general election, it must overcome the result in 2019 where it gained the lowest number and proportion of seats since 1935.

While some in the sector have increasingly found working with the government challenging on several issues, we share why voluntary organisations still need to engage with the Conservatives and other parties below:

• This government may remain in power for a year and is key for short-term decision-making.
• The policies they propose, the questions they ask and the campaigning they do can shape the wider policy agenda and other political parties' positions.
• Charity law means you should seek cross-party agreement, which is good campaign practice.
• If the Conservatives lose power, they will almost certainly be the main opposition party and could be key for putting pressure on the new government.
• Many Conservative politicians support charities and voluntary action and will continue to be useful allies.

Stay ahead

• Online blog LabourList has published leaked details of the party's policies and a tracker of subsequent changes.
• Consider how you can influence the Labour Party by reviewing Next Left: A Guide to Engaging with the Labour Party published by strategic communications agency WA Comms.

Current polling suggests a Labour majority. Though if the Conservatives gain ground between now and the election, Labour could end up as the largest party but without a majority.

In this situation, Labour would be faced with the possibility of having to form a coalition to get a majority. But experts suggest a coalition is less likely to happen than in the 2010 election.

However, both the Liberal Democrats and Scottish National Party (SNP) are likely to allow Labour to form a minority government. They may see this as an opportunity to secure significant concessions from future budgets and legislative priorities.

The Conservatives, by contrast, would probably need to get very close to forming a majority government to continue in office, with few natural allies likely to be elected. The Liberal Democrats would likely be adopting a strategy based on being closer to Labour than the Conservatives.

A hung parliament or even a low majority Labour government would provide significant opportunities to influence. The Liberal Democrats and SNP could potentially hold the balance of power on votes.

In addition, individual party factions and groupings of members of parliament (MPs) can be very influential. In Labour, the Socialist Campaign Group, for example, currently counts 32 Labour MPs among its membership and could play a significant role in shaping what a Labour government could and couldn't do.

Similarly, the Conservative Party has various groupings, ranging from the 100-plus One Nation Conservatives to the so-called ‘five families’ of right-leaning MPs.

Stay ahead

• Learn more about what is a hung parliament and how a Government is formed in this House of Commons Library Research Briefing.

While charities will be looking to influence manifestos and the priorities of parties and individual politicians this year, you should also consider your approach to engaging with new MPs.

There are a few reasons resulting in a number of new MP’s this year:

• Boundary changes
• The likelihood of seats changing hands based on the current polls
• A large number of MPs choosing to stand

As a result, there could easily be well over 100 new MPs for organisations to engage with.

This is potentially a great opportunity to build your national political engagement, so it is worth investing time this year in how you plan to approach and target MP’s:

• Engage with candidates who are likely to be interested in your issue.
• If you're a national charity, take a broad approach to engaging with new MPs after the election
• Local charities may want to focus on building strong relationships with new MPs – and refreshing relationships with those who return.
• It's harder than it used to be to get general introductory meetings. Prioritise a specific issue in the new parliament and focus your engagement on that.

Stay ahead

• Watch our webinars on working with a new government(2019) and on top tips for engaging with politicians (2018).
• Find out if an MP is standing down on this Institute of Government tracker.
• Check the boundaries of new constituencies on this Google Map produced by the Boundary Commission for England.
• Thinking of approaching new MPs, read this blog of tips by consultancy Principle.

While the general election and national politics may dominate the headlines, voluntary organisations need to consider impacts closer to where they are based. On 2 May 2024, polls will open for a series of mayoral and council elections.

The London Mayor will be up for election with current leader, Labour’s Sadiq Khan, currently ahead in the polls. Following the Elections Act 2022, voting will occur under the ‘first-past-the-post system’ for the first time. London Assembly members are also up for election.

Seven combined authority mayors are up for re-election:

• East Midlands
• Greater Manchester
• Liverpool City Region
• South Yorkshire
• Tees Valley
• West Midlands
• West Yorkshire.
• A new North East Mayor will replace the existing North East Combined Authority and North of Tyne Combined Authority and a new York and North Yorkshire Combined Authority will be created.

Stay ahead

• Check out the full list of local government elections on the Department for Levelling Up, Housing and Communities website.
• For a quick summary of devolution in England, visit the Institute for Government website. For full details of local and regional devolution, read this in-depth House of Commons library briefing.

This Foreign Influence Registration Scheme aims to build transparency on other governments' lobbying in the UK. It requires registration arrangements for those directed by foreign governments or their agencies to carry out political influencing activities in the UK. The scheme is expected to go live in 2024.

There are heavier requirements (where someone acts under the direction of certain specified foreign powers or foreign power-controlled entities) for those who have been assessed as posing a risk to UK safety and interests.

If you're a charity with strong links with Governments or state bodies overseas, make sure you learn more about the forthcoming Foreign Influence Registration Scheme.

The scheme is expected to go live in 2024.

Stay ahead

Read the UK Government factsheet about the Foreign Influence Registration Scheme.